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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-02-21T18:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-02-21T18:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29338/-1
CME Note: Wide partial halo CME to the west, associated with a beautiful filament eruption seen after 2024-02-21T17:30Z in AIA 304 traversing the western part of the disk and later as prominence off the western limb in SUVI 304. There is also an area of deep dimming and post eruptive arcades centered at (~N05W40) and stretching along 40th longitude (from lat -3 to 20) in AIA 193 associated with this eruption.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T16:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-02-24T15:16Z (-3.45h, +4.93h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2024/02/21 18:35Z
Plane of Sky 1: 03:00Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 08:10Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction
POS Difference: 5:10
POS Midpoint: 05:35Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:00

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.24
Travel Time: ~6.24 * 11:00 = 68:41

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-02-24T15:16Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5

 * Edit notes: Incorrect values were used for the previous prediction

Lead Time: 49.33 hour(s)
Difference: 1.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-02-22T14:56Z

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